TotalEnergies sees oil demand peaking in 2035-40

What the report says

TotalEnergies says global oil demand is likely to peak sometime between 2035 and 2040, according to its latest Energy Outlook, a forecast that has drawn attention in Uganda because the company is a key player in the country’s oil sector. The French energy firm operates the Tilenga project and holds a major stake in the East African Crude Oil Pipeline, both central to Uganda’s planned entry into commercial oil production.

The outlook, published on November 2, 2026, says petroleum demand could continue rising through the 2030s before leveling off and then gradually declining. TotalEnergies also argues that oil and gas will still be needed for decades, even as electric vehicles, renewable power and other low-carbon technologies expand. The company’s sustainability chief, Aurélien Hamelle, said faster EV adoption could bring an earlier peak in oil use.

For Uganda, the timing matters because the country is close to starting large-scale oil production after years of delays. The two main projects, Tilenga and Kingfisher, are designed to produce a combined 230,000 barrels per day at peak output, with crude expected to move through the pipeline system. Uganda is still targeting first oil before the end of the 2026/2027 financial year, after missing an earlier target because of equipment delivery delays.

The report places Uganda’s oil plans in a wider debate about whether long-term global demand will support new petroleum investments. It also highlights that TotalEnergies sees energy security, affordability and emissions cuts as competing priorities in a transition that remains uneven across regions.