Will Uganda’s NIN tax push deliver more revenue?

What the report says

Uganda is moving to use the National Identification Number, or NIN, as the tax identifier for individual taxpayers, replacing the Tax Identification Number in a reform approved by Cabinet on Aug. 31 and announced by ICT and National Guidance Minister Justine Kasule Lumumba in Kampala on Sept. 1, according to The Independent Uganda. The government says the change is meant to simplify identification, improve data sharing across agencies and help raise domestic revenue without further burdening existing taxpayers.

The broader fiscal goal is ambitious: officials want to lift the tax-to-GDP ratio from about 14.2% to 20% by the 2029/30 financial year. The article notes that Uganda’s taxpayer register has already expanded to about 5.25 million, while net revenue collections reached Shs31.63 trillion in URA’s 2024/25 data. Even so, the report argues that the key challenge is not just registration, but turning records into actual compliance and collections.

Experts quoted by the newspaper offered mixed views. SEATINI’s Aloysius Kittengo said a NIN can help identify more potential taxpayers, but warned that not everyone with a NIN is taxable and that many registered taxpayers are inactive or non-compliant. EPRC researcher Rehema Kahunde said the reform could be useful if it helps URA connect lawful information on income, property, vehicles and business activity across government systems.

The report suggests the NIN policy may matter most as a data and enforcement tool. Its success will likely depend on whether it helps tax authorities detect undeclared economic activity and improve compliance, rather than simply adding more names to the register.