What will happen when a SpaceX rocket collides with the Moon?

What the report says

A SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is expected to strike the Moon, prompting scientists to treat the event as both an accidental impact and a research opportunity. According to BBC World News, NASA’s Centre for Near-Earth Object Studies identified the rocket component as being on a collision course with the lunar surface after independent astronomers examined public tracking data. The impact was expected on 5 August, with no danger to Earth.

The rocket section came from a January 2025 launch linked to a US-Japanese mission that carried lunar landers and scientific equipment. BBC World News said the piece is the rocket’s upper stage, roughly the size of a five-storey building and weighing at least 4,000kg on Earth. Astronomer Bill Gray, who tracked the object’s path, said it was likely to hit near Einstein Crater on the Moon’s Earth-facing side, where it could leave a crater more than 17m across.

Scientists expect the collision to produce a plume of dust and debris that may rise many kilometres above the surface. Because the Moon has no atmosphere, the impact should be especially useful for studying how material behaves when objects hit the lunar surface. Telescopes, NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and South Korea’s Danuri probe were preparing to monitor the flash, plume and resulting crater.

The report also placed the event in the broader problem of space debris. Cautious background context: space agencies have long warned that increasing numbers of defunct satellites and rocket parts in orbit create collision risks, and occasional impacts with the Moon have happened before.