The Houthis’ escalation in Yemen could flop

What the report says

Al Jazeera’s Sultan Barakat argues that the Houthi advance in Yemen, particularly along the Red Sea coast, could end up backfiring. The piece says Houthi forces captured Mocha, then moved into Dhubab and reached Mayyun, or Perim Island, at the Bab al-Mandeb strait, giving them new leverage over a key global shipping route. It frames the escalation as part of Yemen’s civil war, but also as a wider contest involving Saudi Arabia, Iran, Israel and the United States.

The article says the Houthis used the relative pause after the UN-mediated truce that began in 2022 to consolidate control, expand their military capabilities and recruit more fighters, while Yemen’s internationally recognised government remained divided. It also links the Houthis’ messaging to the Gaza war, saying they presented their attacks on Israel and Red Sea operations as support for Palestinians. A July strike on Sanaa airport is described as a turning point that helped harden the group’s response.

Barakat writes that Iran has supported the Houthis with weapons, training and technical help, but that the group also has its own interests and is trying to strengthen its bargaining position before any regional settlement. The article suggests the threat to Bab al-Mandeb could pull Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Europe and possibly Israel closer to a US-led maritime response, even as such a coalition would not solve Yemen’s underlying conflict. In that sense, the escalation may create wider regional coordination while deepening risks for Yemen itself.