SpaceX Has Fallen 45% Since Its Peak: Gary Black Says Investors Are Breaking the 'Number One Rule in Investing' - Benzinga

What the report says

Benzinga reported that Future Fund LLC Managing Partner Gary Black criticized how investors are valuing Space Exploration Technologies Corp. after the company’s shares fell sharply from their post-IPO high. In a Sunday post on X, Black said investors were violating what he called the “number one rule in investing” by treating SpaceX as a strong stock simply because it may be a strong business. Benzinga said SpaceX shares had dropped about 45% from a post-IPO peak of $225.64 reached shortly after the company’s public debut last month.

Black’s argument centered on valuation rather than the company’s operations or Elon Musk’s leadership. According to Benzinga, he said SpaceX’s roughly $1.7 trillion market capitalization should not support a forward enterprise value-to-revenue multiple of about 40 times, describing that level as without precedent among trillion-dollar companies. He also shared a Grok response saying no company above $1 trillion in market value had sustained such a forward multiple, including Nvidia.

Benzinga contrasted Black’s bearish stance with more optimistic Wall Street views. The article said Raymond James recently assigned an $800 price target, while other major brokerages continued to rate the stock a buy despite the decline. Benzinga also noted Black had previously said he would not become interested in the stock until it traded below $100.

The report said investors are watching SpaceX’s first earnings report as a public company, expected around Aug. 17 or earlier, and the expiration of the IPO lockup period as potential next catalysts. SPCX closed Friday down 5.43% at $123.99 and edged up 0.12% in extended trading, according to Benzinga.