Oil flows are up as Iran war turmoil eases. Why do prices keep rising?

What the report says

Oil shipments out of the Gulf have recovered substantially as disruption from the United States/Israel war on Iran eases, but prices are still climbing, Al Jazeera reported on October 30, 2026. The article said crude exports from the Gulf averaged 24.6 million barrels per day in the week to October 18, above the pre-war average, according to market intelligence firm Kpler.

Even so, Brent crude remains at its highest level since April and is more than 60 percent above pre-war levels. The report said traders are pricing in the risk of renewed fighting, tighter oil inventories and higher transport costs. Market experts cited by Al Jazeera said the futures market reflects concern that the conflict could escalate again rather than end soon.

The piece added that producers and shippers have found workarounds to keep oil moving, including ship-to-ship transfers near Oman and the United Arab Emirates and greater use of pipelines that bypass the Strait of Hormuz. But these routes have raised costs sharply, with freight rates reported as much as 10 times normal levels and insurance premiums rising as attacks on commercial vessels continue.

Al Jazeera also noted that inventories have fallen and that some analysts doubt supply has truly returned to normal. In their view, prices are unlikely to ease much without durable de-escalation, restored transit security and rebuilding of stockpiles.