Nigeria retains Africa’s upstream investment lead despite capital decline

What the report says

The Punch reported that Nigeria remains among Africa’s leading destinations for upstream oil and gas investment, even as capital spending across the continent has fallen sharply. Citing the International Energy Agency’s 2026 World Energy Investment Report, released Tuesday, the newspaper said Nigeria, Algeria, Angola, Egypt and Libya still account for 70% of Africa’s upstream investment and 80% of its crude oil and gas output.

According to the reported IEA findings, Africa’s upstream oil and gas investment declined from $68bn in 2016 to $37bn in 2025, while investment across the five established producers fell from $50bn to $25bn over the same period. By contrast, emerging producers including Mozambique, Namibia, Senegal and Uganda attracted rising capital, with investment growing from $1.5bn in 2016 to $5bn in 2025, helped by new deepwater, LNG and other capital-intensive projects.

The Punch also reported that exploration spending in Africa reached nearly $6.5bn in 2025, but the IEA warned that constrained public finances in several producer countries may limit the ability of national oil companies to fund upstream projects. The report said international and private oil companies remain central to African upstream investment, while national oil companies account for about one-quarter of capital expenditure.

Looking ahead, the IEA projected a 12% rise in sub-Saharan upstream investment to about $24bn in 2026 after an 18% decline in 2025. The Punch said Nigeria’s position is expected to be supported by ongoing LNG and deepwater developments, although competition for capital is increasing from newer African producers. The report also noted wider energy-transition investment trends, including growing African investment in critical minerals but limited progress in domestic refining.