Is Ethiopia on the verge of another civil war as fighting erupts in Tigray?

What the report says

Intensified fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region has revived fears that the 2022 Pretoria peace deal, which ended a devastating two-year war, could unravel. Al Jazeera reported on Sept. 26, 2026, that clashes between federal forces and Tigrayan fighters have spread beyond Tigray into parts of Afar and Amhara, with both sides accusing the other of starting the latest escalation.

The report said the violence comes shortly after seven armed groups announced a new anti-government alliance aimed at removing Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The coalition includes the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, the Amhara Fano National Movement and the Oromo Liberation Army, along with smaller movements from other regions. Their alignment is notable because some of these groups were adversaries during the last war.

Al Jazeera said underlying disputes remain unresolved, especially over western Tigray, where Amhara forces took control during the previous conflict and large numbers of Tigrayans were displaced. The federal government says Tigrayan forces have kept weapons they were supposed to surrender, while Tigrayan leaders say promised withdrawals and returns of displaced residents never happened. The article also noted that Tigrayan forces have seized airports in Mekelle, Axum and Shire, disrupting civilian flights.

Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera said the situation is serious but has not yet become a full-scale civil war. The African Union has called for an immediate halt to the fighting and renewed talks under the Pretoria framework, with former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo asked to help mediate.