How the president’s party has fared in every US midterm election since 1946

What the report says

Al Jazeera reports that as Americans vote in the 2026 US midterm elections, history strongly favors the party out of power. The piece says the president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of the 20 midterms since 1946, with only two exceptions: Democrats under Bill Clinton in 1998 and Republicans under George W. Bush in 2002. Polling cited by the outlet suggests 2026 is unlikely to become a third exception.

The article explains that the midterms will decide control of the 435-seat House and 35 Senate seats, shaping Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s term. It notes that Democrats need a net gain of three House seats to take the chamber and four Senate seats to win that majority, while a 50-50 Senate split would still leave Republicans in control because Vice President JD Vance could break ties.

Al Jazeera’s review of postwar midterms says the average House loss for the president’s party has been about 26 seats. It points to especially large defeats under Democratic presidents, including 2010 under Barack Obama and 1994 under Clinton. Senate results have been more uneven because only about a third of seats are contested each cycle, but the president’s party has still lost Senate seats in 13 of the last 20 midterms.

The broader significance, the article says, is that midterms often function as a check on the White House and can affect legislation, investigations and federal appointments for the rest of a presidency.