Ethiopia: Ethiopia's Foretold War Arrives

What the report says

African Arguments, in a September 25 analysis carried by AllAfrica, says fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray and northern regions has escalated back into open war after months of rising tension and scattered clashes. The piece describes the renewed conflict as especially alarming given the recent history of the Tigray war and the fragile peace arrangement reached in Pretoria, which did not fully settle disputes over territory, political control, or security.

The article says a coalition of ethnic-based armed and political groups announced a new alliance on Sunday, presented by Fano commander Zemane Kassie on Tigrai TV. The grouping includes the TPLF, the Amhara Fano National Movement, the Oromo Liberation Army, the Ogaden National Liberation Front, and several smaller movements from Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz. Their stated aim is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s federal government, though the report notes that their coordination remains uneven.

According to the analysis, renewed fighting has spread across the Tigray-Afar and Tigray-Amhara borders, with reports of federal airstrikes, airport seizures in Tigray, and movement toward towns such as Abala, Erebti and Lalibela. Ethiopian Airlines reportedly cancelled flights to several northern destinations. The report also raises the possibility of Eritrea playing a larger role, citing fighting near the Eritrean border and reported troop movements in western Tigray.

The piece frames the renewed war as a major threat to a volatile Horn of Africa region already strained by conflict in Sudan and insecurity in Ethiopia’s other regions. It also says the situation reflects unresolved grievances from the 2020-2022 war and the failure of political reconciliation to take hold.