Ethiopia: Breaking the Pretoria Architecture - How Ethiopia's Fragmented Wars Converged Into a Single Existential Threat

What the report says

African Arguments, published by AllAfrica on 25 September 2026, says Ethiopia’s post-2022 political and security crisis has widened from separate conflicts into a more coordinated challenge to the federal government. The analysis argues that the Pretoria Cessation of Hostilities Agreement, which ended major fighting in Tigray in November 2022, did not fix the underlying tensions in the state and instead delayed a broader breakdown.

The piece says several armed groups that were previously hostile to one another have now aligned under a new umbrella called the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival. It names the Tigray People’s Liberation Front, Amhara Fano factions, the Oromo Liberation Army and other regional movements among the reported participants, and says the coalition’s stated aim is to remove Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and replace it with an inclusive transitional charter. The article also links the shift to the June 2026 election, which it says was widely boycotted and marked by intimidation and arrests, closing off peaceful power-sharing.

The report describes a stronger federal response, including a media suspension after Tigray Television aired the coalition’s declaration, and says authorities have increasingly relied on drones in rebel-held areas. It cites a September 20 drone strike in northwestern Tigray that reportedly hit a humanitarian aid vehicle and injured a child. The analysis says the conflict now carries regional risks, with potential spillover involving Sudan, Eritrea and Egypt.