East Africa: American Analyst Warns Eritrea's Proxy Strategy Risks Destabilizing Horn of Africa

What the report says

AllAfrica, carrying a report by the Ethiopian News Agency from Addis Ababa dated July 30, 2026, reported that U.S. geopolitical analyst Andrew Korybko has warned Eritrea’s alleged use of proxy tactics could worsen insecurity in the Horn of Africa. The report centers on Korybko’s article, titled “Eritrea’s Hybrid War on Ethiopia Threatens To Set The Whole Horn Ablaze,” in which he argues that Eritrean policy under President Isaias Afwerki is aimed at limiting Ethiopia’s rise as a regional power.

According to the ENA account, Korybko alleged that Eritrea has supported armed groups opposed to peace efforts and has used a mix of political pressure, covert activity and economic obstruction to weaken Ethiopia’s internal cohesion and development. The report says his assessment echoes remarks by Getachew Reda, adviser to Ethiopia’s prime minister on East African affairs, at a National Defense College security conference in late June, where Getachew described Eritrea’s security thinking as dependent on an Ethiopia that remains weak.

The article also says Korybko pointed to Ethiopian proposals for deeper economic cooperation with Eritrea, including infrastructure and investment arrangements connected to Ethiopia’s search for reliable sea access, and said Asmara rejected those ideas. He further alleged that Egypt’s alignment with Eritrea has broadened Ethiopia-related disputes into a wider regional challenge.

The reported analysis matters because the Horn of Africa is already affected by overlapping conflicts, fragile state relations and competition over trade routes, ports and water security. ENA said Korybko urged Ethiopia to focus on economic resilience, development and diplomacy, while warning that without de-escalation the region’s instability could deepen.