Can Iran shift trade north to Caspian Sea as war impairs Strait of Hormuz?

What the report says

Iran is exploring whether it can move more trade north through the Caspian Sea as fighting and a US naval blockade disrupt its southern ports and limit access through the Strait of Hormuz, Al Jazeera reported from Tehran. The article says the shift is being driven by the need to keep exporting oil and bringing in essential goods while negotiations with Washington remain stalled.

The Caspian route, however, is not a simple substitute. Al Jazeera reported that falling water levels have reduced the size of vessels that can be handled at Iran’s northern ports and have caused shipping bottlenecks elsewhere on the inland sea, including on Russia’s Volga-linked waterways. Iran’s land borders are also under strain, with long queues of trucks and delays at crossings such as Norduz with Armenia.

Officials and analysts quoted by Al Jazeera said traffic at northern ports has increased, especially for food and other essentials, and that the ports are closer to major Iranian cities, which can lower transport costs. They also pointed to rail links through Central Asia and the importance of completing the Rasht-Astara railway to strengthen the north-south transport corridor.

The report adds that a greater reliance on northern routes could deepen Iran’s dependence on Russia and expose trade to sanctions-related and war-related risks. More broadly, the piece highlights how war, sanctions and infrastructure limits are reshaping Iran’s trade geography and making maritime alternatives harder to secure.