BWANIKA JOSEPH: The handshake trap: What Today’s Ugandan citizens can learn from the legacies of Morgan Tsvangirai and Raila Amolo Odinga?

What the report says

Watchdog Uganda published an op-ed by Bwanika Joseph arguing that Ugandans should be wary of any proposed coalition government or political “handshake” between the ruling establishment and opposition parties. The piece frames the discussion around current speculation in Uganda’s politics and says history should caution opposition figures against entering power-sharing deals with a long-entrenched regime.

The author uses examples from Zimbabwe and Kenya, pointing to Morgan Tsvangirai and Raila Amolo Odinga after their post-election power-sharing arrangements in 2008. In the article’s view, those coalitions left the opposition with titles but limited authority, while incumbents kept control of the security forces, intelligence services and state finances. It argues that the arrangement weakened opposition movements and allowed the ruling systems to remain in place.

The op-ed also refers to Uganda’s 1985 Nairobi Agreement and says it showed how talks can be used tactically rather than as a lasting settlement. It connects that episode to later changes under President Yoweri Museveni’s government, including the removal of presidential term limits in 2005 and age caps in 2017, to support the argument that agreements with the regime may be reversible or politically expedient.

As a remedy, the author calls for a technocratic transitional administration led by non-partisan professionals to oversee a temporary constitution and an independent electoral commission. The broader significance of the piece is its warning that opposition participation in a coalition could dilute reform efforts unless it is tied to a genuine transfer of power.