Building a $500bn Economy: Uganda's Strong Macroeconomic Performance Masks Structural Challenges

What the report says

Uganda closed the 2025/26 financial year with what Treasury Secretary Ramathan Ggoobi described as strong economic resilience, including solid growth, low inflation, a stable shilling and record export earnings, even in an election year. He made the remarks on NBS Morning Breeze, using the performance to argue that the country has shown it can avoid the usual election-related shocks to prices and currency stability.

According to the Nile Post report, the economy expanded by 6.4 percent, inflation averaged about 3.3 percent, and export earnings reached roughly US$18 billion. Coffee exports contributed a record US$2.4 billion. Ggoobi also said government ended the year with all verified invoices paid and money left in government accounts, presenting that as a sign of tighter coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Bank of Uganda.

Despite those indicators, he said the main obstacle to Uganda’s longer-term goal of becoming a US$500 billion economy by 2040 is not macroeconomic stability but deeper structural weaknesses. He pointed especially to a narrow tax base, heavy informality, weak non-tax revenue and persistent delays in public spending and project execution.

The government plans to widen tax compliance, digitize tax administration, streamline procurement and improve accountability in local government. Ggoobi’s broader message was that growth must increasingly translate into jobs, especially for young graduates, and into more efficient public services if Uganda is to turn headline economic gains into broad-based development.