Zimbabwe: Zimbabwe Economy to Grow 5 Percent in 2028 After El Niño-Induced Slowdown, Mthuli Ncube Says

What the report says

Zimbabwe’s Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube said the country’s economy is expected to recover to 5 percent growth in 2028 and then average slightly above that level through 2030, according to a memorandum included in an International Monetary Fund staff report on Zimbabwe’s second review under a 10-month Staff-Monitored Program. The report was published in late Wednesday, and the remarks were carried by New Zimbabwe and distributed by AllAfrica.

Ncube said growth is projected to slow to 3.5 percent in 2027 before rebounding, with the improvement linked to investment, productivity gains and broader economic reforms. He also said stronger medium-term performance would depend on prudent macroeconomic policies, structural reform and continued expansion in key productive sectors.

The minister said progress on arrears clearance and debt resolution could help Zimbabwe unlock concessional financing and foreign direct investment. He also projected that inflation would stay in single digits during 2028-2030, supported by fiscal discipline, monetary policy and exchange-rate stability.

He cautioned that the outlook remains exposed to several risks, including a possible El Niño event in the 2026/27 agricultural season, which could affect farming, food security, hydropower and fiscal revenues. Other risks he cited included higher fuel and fertilizer costs, volatile commodity prices and weaker global demand. More favorable gold prices, stronger mining investment and faster reform implementation could improve the outlook further.