Will Ukraine survive the winter?

What the report says

Al Jazeera published an opinion article by Dmitri Trenin on 12 Oct. 2026 arguing that Ukraine faces a difficult winter as battlefield losses, Russian strikes and an energy crisis intensify. The piece says Washington’s position on the war remains uncertain, pointing to a recent deal involving US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin that included a sanctions waiver on Russian fuel and a Russian diesel export restart.

The article says Ukraine’s infrastructure and economy are under severe strain, with damage to ports, steel production and rail logistics, while Kiev is enduring frequent drone and missile attacks. It also notes that local authorities have urged residents to prepare for winter conditions, including heating backups and food and water supplies. According to the commentary, Ukraine’s leadership under Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains determined to keep fighting, while domestic political pressure and Western backing make a compromise harder.

The author also argues that Europe continues to support Ukraine largely to weaken Russia, and that this support is tied to broader political and economic interests. More broadly, the article frames the war as a test of endurance rather than a quick military contest. Because this is an opinion piece, the claims and conclusions reflect the author’s analysis, not a verified forecast from Al Jazeera’s newsroom.