Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates? Here is what experts predict for July's meeting. - CBS News

What the report says

CBS News reports that the Federal Reserve is broadly expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its July policy meeting, though concerns about renewed inflation have shifted investor expectations for later in 2026. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to announce its decision Wednesday, July 29, at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a 2:30 p.m. press conference by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh.

According to the CBS report, economists surveyed by FactSet expect the central bank to maintain its benchmark federal funds rate in a target range of 3.5% to 3.75%. That would be the fifth straight meeting without a rate change. The article says the Fed had been expected earlier in the year to potentially cut rates in 2026, but higher energy costs and persistent inflation concerns have led some forecasters to consider the possibility of another hike before year-end.

CBS cites CME Group’s FedWatch tool as showing a 38% implied probability of a rate increase at the July meeting, up from 12% a week earlier, while still indicating that no change remains the more likely outcome. Oil prices, which CBS says recently rose above $100 a barrel, are a key factor because energy costs can feed into broader inflation pressures.

The report also notes that Warsh has pledged to bring inflation back to the Fed’s 2% target but has offered limited guidance on future policy. Experts quoted by CBS said July action remains unlikely, while a later meeting could become more important if inflation pressures persist or intensify.