Why some countries fail while others prosper in the Middle East and Africa

What the report says

In an opinion piece published by Al Jazeera on 16 September 2026, economist and political scientist James A. Robinson argues that the main difference between countries that prosper and those that stagnate is not geography, culture or natural resources, but the institutions that organize power, legitimacy and opportunity. He says nations tend to fail when political systems become “extractive,” allowing narrow elites to capture wealth and state authority.

Robinson applies that framework first to Africa, saying the continent’s long history of slave trading, colonial rule and weak accountability left many states trapped in institutional systems that still favor patronage and corruption over public goods. He singles out Nigeria as an example of a country with large human and economic potential but no durable national social contract, contrasting local legitimacy with what he describes as a weak national political project. He also argues that outside policy advice often misses the deeper political nature of the problem.

The article then turns to the Middle East and North Africa, where Robinson draws a sharp contrast between countries such as Syria and Iraq, which he describes as dominated by extractive autocracies, and Gulf states including Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which he says used traditional sources of legitimacy to build stronger state institutions. He presents the region as part of a broader global shift in which domestic institutions, not external powers alone, will shape future outcomes.