Why Canada is preparing for a (long shot) US invasion

What the report says

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada’s military is reviewing scenarios for an improbable but possible US invasion, framing it as a risk-management exercise amid strained relations with President Donald Trump’s administration. The BBC reports that the idea remains highly unlikely, but it has become part of Canada’s defence planning as Trump’s tariffs and repeated remarks about making Canada the 51st state have sharpened concern in Ottawa and among some Canadians.

The article says military experts view an armed attack as a long shot because the two countries are deeply linked through NATO, NORAD and routine intelligence sharing. A former Royal Canadian Air Force officer told the BBC that any hostility would more likely start with cyber or other less direct pressure than a conventional assault. The story also notes that Canada and the United States have long been close allies, even as fears of American expansionism are part of Canada’s historical identity.

BBC reporting and background cited in the piece indicate that Canadian planners have also considered what an invasion could look like in theory, with early defensive positions potentially quickly overwhelmed and support sought from allies such as Britain and France. Analysts quoted by the BBC said the fact that Canada is preparing at all reflects a wider shift in geopolitical uncertainty and a reassessment of long-standing defence assumptions.