Where the US midterm elections will be won and lost

What the report says

Americans are heading to the polls on 3 November in midterm elections that will determine control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, and shape the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, according to BBC World News. The report says Republicans currently hold both chambers, but Democrats see a realistic opening because of Trump’s weak approval ratings and several closely fought races.

In the House, all 435 seats are up for election and the Republican majority is extremely narrow. BBC World News says only a small number of districts are considered toss-ups, with more of them currently held by Republicans than Democrats. In the Senate, only a third of seats are contested, and analysts cited by BBC World News say the Democrats would need to win a difficult mix of competitive races, including contests in states Trump won comfortably in 2024, to take control.

The article identifies the cost of living as the main issue for voters, alongside healthcare and immigration. It also notes that Trump’s handling of the Iran conflict has hurt his standing with many voters, while Democrats are campaigning on health insurance costs and access to care. BBC World News adds that Republicans have a major fundraising and advertising advantage, with more than $1bn spent on political ads in September across the parties.

The piece frames the midterms as a key test of whether Trump can overcome what it describes as normal political headwinds for the president’s party, and says the results will quickly shift attention toward the 2028 presidential race.