Where are the ‘El Niño rains’? Meteorologists explain delayed onset

What the report says

Uganda’s meteorologists say the slow start to the September-December rains does not contradict the seasonal outlook, even with El Niño present. The Observer reports that the Department of Meteorological Services says September brought below-average rainfall and fewer rainy days in parts of the country, disrupting farming activities such as land preparation, planting and seedling establishment. Officials say the public may have expected El Niño to trigger immediate heavy rain, but a delayed onset had already been anticipated.

Principal meteorologist William George Omony made the remarks during a dialogue for scientists and journalists organised by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre in East Africa. He said widespread rainfall was recorded in much of Uganda on October 9, after a dry September, and that this fit the department’s expectation that the season would begin stabilising around mid-October. Omony said El Niño is a broad climate signal, not a district-by-district rainfall guarantee, and that other weather patterns also affect how rain develops.

He added that the department had monitored the El Niño signal from March and had also used seasonal climate information to help anticipate drought conditions in Karamoja during June-August. The article says meteorologists are now expecting more consistent rainfall through late October and November, with the retreat of the season varying by region.

The report also quotes climate specialist Eunice Koech of ICPAC, who said rainfall over East Africa depends on multiple factors, including the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. A Kenya Meteorological Service forecaster was cited as saying Kenya’s outlook for above-average October-December rainfall remained unchanged, underscoring that regional forecasts do not translate uniformly across locations.