When a SpaceX rocket crashes into the moon, scientists will be watching - Phys.org

What the report says

Phys.org reported on July 21 that a discarded SpaceX Falcon 9 upper stage is forecast to hit the moon on Aug. 5, 2026, near Einstein Crater on the lunar near side. The object, cataloged as 2025-010D, is expected to strike at about 06:35 UTC, making the event potentially observable from Earth if conditions and equipment allow.

According to the report, the rocket stage was left drifting after a January 2025 mission that sent two private robotic landers toward the moon. Phys.org said the stage is about 12 meters long, 4 meters wide and roughly 4,000 kilograms, and is projected to collide with the lunar surface at around 8,750 kilometers per hour. Tracking data from astronomer Bill Grey was used in modeling described in a new arXiv preprint.

The preprint authors, led by Benjamin Fernando, are urging professional and amateur astronomers to observe the impact. Their simulations suggest the hollow rocket body may collapse rather than punch deeply into the surface, creating a new crater estimated at about 20 to 30 meters across and sending lunar dust several kilometers upward. Researchers are especially interested in any impact flash and ejecta plume, which may require high-speed video cameras to capture.

The event matters because artificial lunar impacts that can be monitored in real time are uncommon. Phys.org noted that observations could help scientists test methods for locating impact sites more precisely, a capability that may be useful for future lunar seismic studies and broader planning as human and robotic activity around the moon increases.