What would it take for the Yemen offensive to succeed?

What the report says

Al Jazeera says the newly announced Yemeni government counter-offensive, called Dawn of Yemen, has made early territorial gains against the Houthis along the Red Sea coast near the Bab al-Mandeb strait. The report says the operation, backed by a Saudi-led coalition, marks the most significant escalation in Yemen since the UN-brokered truce in 2022 and comes after years of a largely frozen conflict.

The analysis argues that battlefield advances alone will not decide the campaign. It says the western coast, Taiz and Marib are the key fronts, because pressure on those areas could stretch Houthi forces and disrupt their ability to concentrate fighters, missiles, drones and logistics. Control of the coast and nearby islands is presented as especially important because of the strategic role of Bab al-Mandeb for Red Sea shipping and Gulf energy exports.

Al Jazeera also stresses that the government’s main weakness is cohesion rather than outside support. It says anti-Houthi factions remain fragmented, including southern forces, coastal units aligned with Tareq Saleh and groups linked to Islah, while the Houthis retain a more centralized command structure. The piece notes that the government has begun arranging salary payments and reconstruction in recovered areas, suggesting that governance and services may matter as much as combat gains.

The report places the fighting in a wider humanitarian and regional context, citing heavy casualties, displacement and worsening cholera concerns. It concludes that the offensive will be judged by whether it changes the Houthis’ calculation of the war’s cost, not by whether it captures Sanaa.