US tariffs ‘strengthen’ Lula against Bolsonaro’s son in upcoming elections

What the report says

Al Jazeera reports that recent United States trade and sanctions measures against Brazil are becoming a major issue in the country’s presidential campaign, with President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeking a fourth non-consecutive term in October against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, the son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro. Brazil’s first-round general election is scheduled for October 4, with a possible runoff on October 25. A recent Quaest poll for Folha de S Paulo cited by Al Jazeera put Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro, 45 percent to 37 percent, in a hypothetical second round.

According to the report, US President Donald Trump’s administration announced 25 percent tariffs on many Brazilian goods after an investigation that accused Brazil of unfair trade practices, including treatment of the state-run Pix payments system, tariffs on US ethanol and weak enforcement of deforestation laws. Earlier tariffs of up to 50 percent were linked to the criminal case against Jair Bolsonaro over attempts to overturn the 2022 election result, a case Trump had criticized.

Analysts quoted by Al Jazeera said the measures may be helping Lula frame the campaign around national sovereignty, while making it harder for the Bolsonaro family to present its ties to Washington as beneficial for Brazil. Flavio Bolsonaro has urged the US to postpone the new tariffs until after the election, saying they could aid Lula politically. Lula has accused the Bolsonaro camp of inviting foreign pressure.

The report also notes legal and political complications for the Bolsonaro family, including Eduardo Bolsonaro’s conviction over lobbying the US in relation to his father’s trial, and scrutiny of Flavio Bolsonaro over a funding request for a film about Jair Bolsonaro. Al Jazeera says some business sectors that previously backed Bolsonaro have become more cautious as tariff uncertainty grows.