US on track to have historically low number of homicides in 2026, report says - AP News

What the report says

The Associated Press reported that a new Council on Criminal Justice analysis found homicides falling sharply across a sample of U.S. cities in 2026. The independent policy and research group said data from 30 cities showed an 18% lower homicide rate than during the comparable period in 2025, amounting to about 215 fewer killings. If that pattern holds through year’s end, the country could record its lowest annual homicide rate in more than 100 years, according to the report released Thursday.

AP said the council reviewed 13 crime categories and found declines in nine of them, including homicide, carjacking, residential burglary and aggravated assault. Some categories moved in the opposite direction: reported shoplifting, domestic violence incidents, sexual assaults and drug offenses rose modestly. The council also reported that serious violent crime became less lethal, with a 23% decline in the share of serious violent offenses that ended in death.

The findings come after the pandemic-era rise in violence and amid a midterm election year in which politicians in both parties have pointed to crime trends. Council president Adam Gelb told AP that falling crime across cities with different political leadership and public safety strategies suggests the improvement is not easily explained by one local policy. John Roman of the University of Chicago’s National Opinion Research Center similarly said explanations likely extend beyond any one administration.

AP noted important limits: the data come from law enforcement sources in selected cities, and some crime categories include fewer jurisdictions because of reporting differences. About one-third of the 30 cities saw homicides increase year over year, including Norfolk, Virginia, and San Francisco, though only four sampled cities had more homicides than in the comparable 2019 period.