UN warns El Nino could be ‘off the charts’, strongest in decades

What the report says

The World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday that El Nino is expected to strengthen into an unusually powerful event in the coming months and remain in place through February, according to forecasts cited by Al Jazeera. The UN weather agency said it sees an exceptionally high likelihood, near 100 percent, that the pattern will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter.

Al Jazeera reported that WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warned the event could be “off the charts” if current trends continue. The organization said the warming Pacific phenomenon is likely to affect rainfall, temperature and storm patterns worldwide, increasing the risk of drought, flooding and extreme heat. It also said the impacts could persist well into 2027 even if the El Nino peak comes toward the end of this year.

The warning matters because El Nino can influence weather far beyond the tropical Pacific, including in parts of the Americas, Asia and Australia. Al Jazeera noted that scientists do not treat El Nino itself as caused by climate change, but said it may add to already elevated global temperatures in a warming world.

The WMO also urged disaster planners and climate-sensitive sectors such as agriculture, health, energy and water to prepare. As background, El Nino is part of a natural cycle that alternates with La Nina every few years, and strong events have previously been linked to major disruptions in food systems, water supplies and economic activity.