Uganda: Uganda's Military Takes Centre Stage in Museveni Succession

What the report says

AllAfrica, citing an analysis by the Institute for Security Studies, says Uganda’s succession debate has intensified after President Yoweri Museveni secured a seventh term in January. The piece argues that the political profile of Museveni’s son, Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba, who heads the Uganda Peoples’ Defence Forces, has made him a leading figure in discussions about who might follow Museveni. It says the overlap between military authority and civilian politics remains central to Uganda’s power structure.

The report describes the armed forces as deeply embedded in governance, pointing to constitutionally reserved parliamentary seats for military representatives, military trials for some civilians and critics, and repeated allegations by rights groups of arrests and abuses targeting opponents, journalists and media outlets. It also notes that, since mid-June, Human Rights Watch has said at least five critics of Museveni and Muhoozi were detained. Muhoozi, the article adds, has publicly signaled ambitions to succeed his father and has expanded his influence through a political pressure group aligned with ruling-party figures.

The analysis says this raises concerns for democracy because Ugandan law bars serving military personnel from politics, yet Muhoozi’s dual role gives him unusual leverage. It also highlights internal competition within the first family, including tensions with Museveni’s son-in-law, Odrek Rwabwogo, who is presented as another possible successor. Beyond elite rivalry, the report says pressure on opposition leaders such as Kizza Besigye and Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, also known as Bobi Wine, has weakened alternative succession paths and could deepen political instability.