Tigray Fighters, Sudan War Raise Fears of Wider Regional Conflict

What the report says

Countries in the Horn of Africa are facing renewed security concerns after allegations emerged that fighters from Ethiopia’s Tigray region may have been recruited across the border to support Sudan’s army in its war against rival forces. According to Dokolo Post, the claims were raised by Sudan’s opposition Umma Party, which said the recruitment may involve Islamist figures linked to Sudanese army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and, possibly, Eritrea. The party warned that such activity could open another front along Sudan’s eastern border and deepen the regional spillover from Sudan’s conflict.

The article says the accusations come amid a war in Sudan that began on April 15, 2023, and against the backdrop of Ethiopia’s own 2020-2022 Tigray conflict, which ended with the Pretoria Peace Agreement. It reports that Sudanese media had previously said between 20,000 and 30,000 TPLF-affiliated fighters entered Sudan after the Ethiopian war began, and that Ethiopia sought their return. The piece also notes claims that some of those fighters later appeared in operations in Khartoum, Al Jazirah and Blue Nile states.

Dokolo Post also highlights wider analysis suggesting that conflicts in the Horn are becoming more interconnected through armed groups, political actors and cross-border funding or arms flows. It cites concern over the role of the Al-Baraa ibn Malik Brigades, an Islamist group allied to the Sudanese army and sanctioned by the United States, while noting that the recruitment allegations were not independently verified in the source material.

Beyond the security implications, the report says Sudan’s war is also causing severe economic damage, with one cited estimate placing losses at about $145.7 billion by the end of June and reconstruction needs at roughly $159 billion over 10 years.