Sudan: Sudan's Peace Process Is Negotiating a War That No Longer Exists

What the report says

African Arguments, republished by AllAfrica, argues that Sudan’s peace efforts are still being framed around the conflict as it looked in April 2023, even though the war has changed substantially after more than three years. The analysis says the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) has retaken Khartoum and strengthened control across much of the north, east and centre, while major fighting has moved toward Darfur, Kordofan and Blue Nile and drone strikes have affected areas previously seen as safer.

The article says diplomacy often treats the war as a contest between Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan’s SAF and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo’s Rapid Support Forces (RSF). But it argues that neither leader can fully command or politically represent all forces fighting alongside them. On the SAF side, the piece points to Darfuri movements, former-regime networks, tribal forces and local defence groups. On the RSF side, it highlights allied tribal and regional forces and Abdelaziz al-Hilu’s SPLM-N, which has its own command structure and agenda.

The analysis warns that a deal signed only by Burhan and Hemedti may not be enforceable if allied armed groups reject disarmament, resist withdrawals or exploit local disputes. It says military gains can also make compromise harder, because coalition partners may expect future positions, resources or recognition.

African Arguments proposes keeping SAF and RSF leaders at the centre of nationwide talks on ceasefires, humanitarian access and civilian protection, while creating a separate security track for major armed actors with forces, territory and the ability to uphold or undermine an agreement. The piece stresses that such participation should focus on ending violence, not granting militias a role in deciding Sudan’s constitutional future.