Sudan: Refugees, Lost Trade and Security Costs - How Conflict in One African Country Drives Up Debt for Its Neighbours

What the report says

An analysis republished by AllAfrica from The Conversation Africa argues that conflict in one African country can raise government debt in neighbouring states through spillover effects such as refugee flows, disrupted trade, humanitarian spending and higher security costs. The piece, published on 13 August 2026 and written by economist Opeoluwa Adeosun, draws on research covering 38 African countries between 2000 and 2022.

The study says debt pressures are not driven only by domestic conditions. Using border-based spatial analysis, it found that conflict can increase borrowing in nearby countries, and that military spending by neighbours can intensify those effects. The article highlights western Africa as a region where both direct and indirect impacts are significant, with instability in places such as the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin affecting surrounding economies. It also notes examples including Mali’s instability adding fiscal strain for Niger and Burkina Faso.

Sudan is used in the headline to illustrate a broader regional pattern, while the text specifically mentions South Sudan’s spillover effects on Uganda, where refugee support and public services have strained budgets. The article also points to trade disruptions, border closures and weaker tax collection as channels through which conflict can erode revenue and increase debt. In general, the piece argues that even countries not directly at war may face higher borrowing costs because investors price regional risk into sovereign debt.