South Sudan: Credible Elections Are No Longer Possible in South Sudan - What Next?

What the report says

An analysis published by the Institute for Security Studies and republished by AllAfrica argues that credible national elections in South Sudan are no longer realistic ahead of the planned December 2026 vote. The piece says the government’s cabinet has approved legal changes to prepare for the polls, even as the United Nations Commission on Human Rights in South Sudan warned a day earlier that key safeguards for peaceful and credible elections were missing. The government rejected that assessment.

The article says South Sudan has not held national elections since independence in 2011, with repeated delays linked to conflict and political deadlock. It traces the current crisis to the fragile 2018 peace agreement, which remains the basis of the transitional government. According to the analysis, President Salva Kiir has taken unilateral steps that weaken the power-sharing arrangement, including changes to government appointments, security-sector delays, and amendments that removed election preconditions such as a census and a new constitution. It also says Vice-President Riek Machar has been placed under house arrest since March 2025 and faces treason charges.

The authors warn that pressing ahead with voting under current conditions could deepen instability or provide cover for another extension of the transition. They argue that the priority should be preserving the peace deal, maintaining pressure for Machar’s release, and seeking a consensual time-bound extension rather than forcing a rushed election. The article also notes severe humanitarian pressures, with widespread displacement and aid needs, and unresolved technical problems such as underfunding of the election commission and the lack of a voter register.