South Sudan: Arms Smuggling - a Key Threat to South Sudan's December Elections

What the report says

AllAfrica published an Institute for Security Studies analysis warning that illicit arms trafficking could undermine South Sudan’s planned national elections in December 2026. The article, by ISS senior researcher Oluwole Ojewale, says the vote is already under pressure from political divisions, disputes over changes to the 2018 peace agreement, Vice-President Riek Machar’s detention and rising militarisation. It also notes recent opposition threats and doubts from civil society about whether credible elections can be held across the country.

According to the ISS analysis, weapons smuggling remains a major destabilising factor despite a United Nations arms embargo imposed in 2018. The article cites UN Mission in South Sudan human rights data from January to March 2026 documenting 206 incidents of conflict-related violence affecting 1,388 civilians, including 767 deaths. ISS research in May found stakeholders worried that voting may be limited to urban centres because many rural areas are inaccessible or controlled by armed groups; the analysis says this could affect representation in a country where most people live outside cities.

The article places South Sudan’s insecurity in a regional context. It says the war in neighbouring Sudan has contributed to cross-border weapons flows and the recruitment of South Sudanese fighters, while conflicts in Ethiopia, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and insecurity in the Karamoja Cluster also fuel demand. A July 2025 UN Security Council report is cited as tracing modern Turkish-made rifles seized in South Sudan to stockpiles looted in Khartoum.

ISS argues that South Sudan needs stronger regional measures, including AU- and IGAD-linked cross-border task forces, improved border cooperation and alignment with disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration efforts to reduce demand for weapons.