South Korean women are projected to become the first population in recorded human history to cross an average life expectancy of 90 years by 2030 — a threshold that researchers at the turn of this century considered impossible for any group of people to rea - Space Daily

What the report says

Space Daily reports that South Korean women remain on a closely watched path that a 2017 Lancet study projected could make them the first national population on record to exceed an average life expectancy at birth of 90 years by 2030. The article stresses that the figure is a forecast, not a measurement: the study estimated a 57% probability that South Korean female life expectancy would pass 90, with a central projection of about 90.8 years.

The modelling work, led by Vasilis Kontis and Majid Ezzati of Imperial College London with the World Health Organization, used a Bayesian model ensemble combining 21 forecasting models. Space Daily notes that the finding drew attention because some demographers had previously viewed 90 years as close to a practical ceiling for national life expectancy. The projection placed South Korean women ahead of peers in countries such as France, Spain and Japan.

According to the report, the study linked South Korea’s projected advantage to broad health-system access, strong cardiovascular risk management, low smoking rates among women, relatively low blood pressure, low obesity and improved childhood nutrition. Space Daily also points out that the country’s recent figures remain below 90, with female life expectancy around 86 to 87 years in 2023 depending on the source, meaning continued gains would be needed before 2030.

The article cautions against treating the projection as a settled milestone. It also highlights a wider policy issue: South Korea combines exceptional longevity with extremely low fertility, creating long-term challenges for pensions, healthcare and social care as the population ages.