South Africa: A Sharp Fall in Gas Supplies in 2028 Threatens South Africa's Economy - How to Manage the Fallout

What the report says

AllAfrica republished a Conversation Africa analysis by Davies Tsikayi, a mechanical engineer and lecturer, warning that South Africa faces a looming “gas cliff” as output from Mozambique’s Pande and Temane gas fields is expected to decline after 2028. Those fields, connected to South Africa through the Rompco pipeline into Mpumalanga, have supplied about 90% of the country’s gas for more than 20 years.

The analysis says the risk is wider than the relatively small share of gas in South Africa’s overall energy mix. Large portions of the Pande-Temane supply are used by Sasol at Secunda and Sasolburg for synthetic fuels and chemical production, while other volumes go to industrial customers in sectors including steel, sugar, paper, pulp and automotive manufacturing. Tsikayi notes that gas is important for ammonia, methanol, fertiliser and industrial heat, meaning shortages could affect manufacturing costs, food-related supply chains and jobs.

The report cites estimates that substitutes such as LPG, diesel or electricity could cost two to five times more than current gas, before conversion costs. It also says gas-reliant industries directly employ about 70,000 to 100,000 people, while Sasol’s broader economic footprint has been estimated at about 5% of GDP and around 500,000 direct and indirect jobs.

Tsikayi argues that South Africa must move quickly on liquefied natural gas imports, including a dual-terminal approach involving Mozambique and KwaZulu-Natal, while also advancing clearer procurement, infrastructure and regulatory plans. The analysis says domestic and regional gas may help later, but is unlikely to close the near-term gap before declining Mozambican supply begins to bite.