Somalia: Outmaneuvering Mogadishu, Anchoring Somali Federalism - Ahmed Madobe and Jubaland's Architecture of Resilience

What the report says

Addis Standard published an analysis from Addis Ababa on Sept. 10, 2026, focused on Somali regional politics and the role of Jubaland President Ahmed Madobe. The piece portrays Madobe as a long-serving leader who has kept Jubaland politically intact since 2013, after helping secure Kismayo from Al-Shabaab in 2012 with the Ras Kamboni Brigade and Kenyan forces under the African Union mission. It argues that Jubaland’s position along Somalia’s southern border and control of Kismayo have made it a recurring flashpoint in relations with the federal government in Mogadishu.

According to the article, tensions with successive federal administrations have centered on recognition of Jubaland’s leadership, control of port revenues, election management, and the deployment of federal forces near the Gedo border area. It describes early disputes after Jubaland’s formation in 2013, when Mogadishu reportedly questioned the legality of the Kismayo conference and Madobe’s election before an agreement in Addis Ababa led to federal recognition of the Interim Jubba Administration. The analysis also says later standoffs under President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo involved aviation restrictions, border pressure, and efforts to influence regional politics.

The article presents Madobe as having responded by strengthening Jubaland’s institutions, keeping local security forces unified, and using regional diplomacy and constitutional procedures to preserve autonomy. It says those tactics helped sustain Jubaland’s governance during repeated confrontations with Mogadishu and shaped broader debates over Somali federalism. More generally, the piece uses Jubaland to illustrate the ongoing strain between central authority and Somalia’s federal member states, a core issue in the country’s post-conflict state-building process.