Poll shows Bolsonaro with slight lead over Lula ahead of Brazilian run-off

What the report says

A new Quaest poll reported by Al Jazeera shows right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro with a narrow lead over President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ahead of Brazil’s October 25 presidential runoff. The survey gives Bolsonaro 46 percent support and Lula 44 percent, a gap that falls within the poll’s two-point margin of error. The result comes after the October 4 first round, when Bolsonaro also finished slightly ahead of Lula, despite pre-election polls indicating the opposite outcome.

According to the report, the poll was the first Quaest survey released since the initial vote and suggests Bolsonaro has kept his edge entering the final stage of the race. Lula has been trying to energize supporters with large rallies after falling short in the first round, while Bolsonaro has worked to broaden backing from conservative, centre-right and business-friendly groups. Al Jazeera noted that analysts had expected him to gain more from the elimination of other conservative candidates than he appears to have done so far.

The article also places the poll in the context of a politically and economically tense campaign. Lula has recently highlighted a Senate-approved constitutional amendment reducing Brazil’s maximum workweek from 44 to 40 hours without a pay cut, a measure presented as a worker-friendly win. He has also moved against sports betting, which the report links to gambling addiction and rising household debt. These developments help explain why cost-of-living concerns remain central in the runoff.