Oil Market's Glut Narrative Just Blew Up - Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com

What the report says

OilPrice.com reported that the recent argument for an impending crude surplus has been overtaken by renewed supply risks linked to conflict in the Middle East and disruptions around key export routes. In a July 26, 2026 article, Irina Slav wrote that Brent crude had moved above $100 a barrel during the week after reports that Houthi forces hit two Saudi tankers near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

According to the publisher, the attacks added pressure to an already strained market because Saudi Arabia was relying on that Red Sea route while the Strait of Hormuz was affected by an Iranian blockade. OilPrice said some tankers bound for the Red Sea turned back toward other routes, a shift that can lengthen voyages and raise transport costs. The article also cited IEA data showing global crude demand fell by nearly 5% in the second quarter, which it linked to the price shock from the Middle East war.

The report said tightness was also visible in global fuel markets, with refining margins described as reaching a record high. OilPrice contrasted that with warnings from less than a month earlier that crude markets could face a glut as Hormuz traffic recovered during a U.S.-Iran ceasefire, a period the article said quickly gave way to renewed fighting.

OilPrice also pointed to the Black Sea as another pressure point, reporting that Ukrainian drone strikes targeting the Novorossiysk port area disrupted the Caspian Pipeline System terminus and led Kazakhstan to suspend most oil exports. The combined chokepoint and export-route risks matter because they can affect crude availability, shipping costs and fuel prices even when demand is weakening.