Oil and Gas Countdown: Can black gold deliver promised economic transformation?

What the report says

Nearly two decades after commercially viable oil was discovered in Uganda’s Albertine Graben, the country is approaching first production, according to a news analysis by The Independent Uganda based on Uganda Radio Network material. The article says TotalEnergies has indicated that oil from the Tilenga project could begin flowing around September, with output from a CNOOC-operated field also expected around the same time after testing and commissioning work on key facilities. It adds that the East African Crude Oil Pipeline is reported to be about 90% complete, highlighting how close Uganda is to becoming an oil-producing state.

The report says the petroleum sector has already had economic effects before the first barrels are pumped. It cites jobs, contracts for Ugandan firms, and spending in construction, transport, hospitality and logistics, along with government income from licences, taxes and signature bonuses. The article notes that the Final Investment Decision in February 2022 accelerated activity across the region.

At the same time, the piece stresses that expectations around oil remain contested. It contrasts three recent assessments: one from IEEFA that is cautious about returns because of delays, costs and the global energy transition; one from NRGI urging careful long-term management of finite oil revenues; and one from MCB Research arguing that investment linked to oil is already supporting broader economic improvement. The article says the central question is whether oil wealth will produce durable benefits for ordinary Ugandans.