Nigeria: #OsunDecides2026 - INEC Results Fall Within Independent Projections - Yiaga

What the report says

Yiaga Africa said Nigeria’s 2026 Osun State governorship election results were consistent with its independent statistical projections, while stressing that the match in vote totals should not be read as a blanket approval of the wider poll. The election observer group made the assessment at a post-election briefing in Osogbo, after the Independent National Electoral Commission declared incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party the winner over Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress.

According to the report, Adeleke received 511,067 votes, ahead of Oyebamiji’s 444,815, with Najeem Salam of the African Democratic Congress far behind. Yiaga said its Process and Results Verification for Transparency analysis, based on reports from most of its sampled polling units, showed INEC’s final figures fell within its estimated vote ranges for the main parties. The group said this indicated that polling-unit results were accurately tabulated.

At the same time, Yiaga raised concerns about reported vote buying and voter inducement, saying those issues could affect the integrity of voter choice even if the official count was accurate. It also said election-day logistics were generally better than feared, but noted problems with biometric authentication through BVAS and uncertainty around the use of downloadable PVCs. The group urged clearer guidance from INEC as Nigeria looks ahead to the 2027 general election, when electoral procedures and result-management reforms are expected to face further scrutiny.