Nigeria: Just in - IMF Increases Nigeria's Growth Forecasts to 4.2 Percent, Warns Higher Prices Will Aggravate Poverty, Food Insecurity

What the report says

The International Monetary Fund has raised Nigeria’s growth forecast for 2026 to 4.2 percent and projected 4.3 percent growth in 2027, according to a report published Tuesday and presented on the sidelines of IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok, Thailand. The update appears in the IMF’s 2026 World Economic Outlook, which said Nigeria is benefiting from improved macroeconomic stability and favorable terms-of-trade effects.

At the same time, the Fund warned that higher prices for essential goods are likely to worsen poverty and food insecurity. The article notes that this warning comes as many Nigerians continue to face a difficult cost-of-living environment, with the effects of recent economic reforms still being felt. Those reforms have included changes to the foreign exchange market and the removal of fuel subsidies, steps that international institutions have generally viewed as supportive of fiscal stability, while many households have experienced higher living costs.

The IMF also said growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain steady at 4.5 percent in 2026, though it said prospects differ widely by country depending on policy choices, commodity exposure, climate shocks and access to financing. For Nigeria, the broader significance is that stronger official growth expectations are now being paired with a caution that inflation and food insecurity could continue to strain households.