Nigeria: Atiku Playing to the Gallery, 15 Northern States Will Collapse If Subsidy Returns, Don Warns

What the report says

A professor at Obafemi Awolowo University, Tunji Ogunyemi, warned in a Friday interview on Open Forum 360 that restoring petrol subsidies could sharply cut the revenue shared among Nigeria’s states and federal government. The comments came in reaction to a pledge by African Democratic Congress presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar to bring back subsidy support if elected in 2027. The report was published by This Day and distributed by AllAfrica.

Ogunyemi argued that many state governments depend heavily on allocations from the Federation Account to pay salaries and fund operations. He said the impact would be especially severe in northern Nigeria, where he suggested roughly 15 states could struggle to sustain themselves within months if subsidy were reintroduced. He also said some states, including Lagos, Delta and Rivers, are less dependent on federal transfers than others.

He further warned that lower revenue would make it harder for governments to meet payroll, pensions, routine spending and debt obligations. According to the article, he described the proposal as politically motivated and said it needed clearer explanation from a former vice-president like Atiku. The piece also noted that Atiku later said he was not proposing a return to the old import-subsidy model, but rather a capped and targeted support scheme tied to domestic refining, with auditing and transparency measures.

The article adds broader context: President Bola Tinubu ended the fuel subsidy in May 2023, a move that helped drive up petrol and transport costs, while the federal government has defended the reform as a way to ease fiscal pressure and free up resources.