Lula holds slim lead over Flavio Bolsonaro ahead of Brazil election

What the report says

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is still ahead of right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the run-up to October’s presidential election, according to a new Quaest poll reported by Al Jazeera. The survey, published on Friday and conducted from August 10 to 13 with 2,004 respondents, put Lula on 43 percent in a simulated runoff, compared with 40 percent for Bolsonaro. With a margin of error of two points, the result amounts to a very narrow race.

Al Jazeera noted that the lead has shrunk since an earlier Quaest poll on August 5, when Lula was up by five points. In a first-round scenario, Lula also led more clearly, with 38 percent against Bolsonaro’s 31 percent. Other candidates were far behind, including Renan Santos and Ronaldo Caiado at 4 percent each, and Romeu Zema at 2 percent. Under Brazil’s rules, a runoff is held if no candidate wins more than half of valid votes in the first round.

The article said Flavio Bolsonaro has become the main conservative challenger because his father, former president Jair Bolsonaro, was barred from seeking office. Jair Bolsonaro was found ineligible by Brazil’s top electoral court and later convicted in a separate case tied to efforts to overturn his 2022 defeat to Lula.

Al Jazeera also reported that Lula launched his re-election bid on August 2 in Sao Paulo, presenting himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty amid tensions with US President Donald Trump’s administration. The tightening race suggests a competitive campaign ahead, even as Lula retains a slim advantage.