‘Limit overshoot, peak, decline’: A new global goal for climate change?

What the report says

A new United Nations Environment Programme report, published in Nairobi, says the world is now likely to exceed the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C warming limit within the next few years, even under the most optimistic pathway. Al Jazeera reports that the study, titled “Limiting Overshoot,” argues the most realistic route now is an “overshoot, peak and decline” approach: temperatures would rise above the target, peak, and then fall back below it later in the century if emissions are cut sharply.

The article says the 2015 Paris deal, backed by nearly 200 countries, helped reduce projected warming and accelerated clean energy growth, but global fossil fuel use has continued to rise. It cites recent record-high carbon dioxide emissions and notes that renewable energy has become much cheaper, yet political action has not kept pace. Climate experts quoted by Al Jazeera say the longer the planet stays above 1.5C, the greater the risk of harsher weather, biodiversity loss, and damage to vulnerable coastal and island communities.

The piece also places the warning in a broader context of policy rollbacks in the United States, growing electricity demand from artificial intelligence data centres, and pressure on technology companies to reduce their emissions. It says some of that demand is still being met by fossil fuels.

Al Jazeera adds that large-scale carbon dioxide removal may help in the long term, but experts caution that avoiding emissions remains the cheaper and more effective priority.