Libya: Can the African Union Remain Relevant in Libya?

What the report says

The Institute for Security Studies, in an analysis republished by AllAfrica, says the African Union’s role in Libya will depend on whether it can better coordinate existing peace efforts rather than launch new ones. The piece argues that Libya remains deeply fragmented 15 years after the 2011 uprising, with rival eastern and western authorities, multiple armed groups, and overlapping mediation tracks making national reconciliation and institutional unification difficult.

The report highlights several recent developments it describes as cautious progress: a reconciliation charter signed earlier this year after AU facilitation, approval of a unified budget by rival administrations in April, a joint military exercise involving rival commanders in March, and an election roadmap agreed on 30 August under UN auspices. It also notes a separate Libyan-led tripartite agreement from 16 June that aims to lead to presidential and parliamentary elections by 17 February 2027.

According to the analysis, the main obstacle is not a lack of agreements but weak implementation. It says rival power centres benefit from parallel institutions tied to oil revenues and state resources, while foreign interference and the presence of external forces continue to complicate progress. The AU’s comparative advantage, the article says, is its focus on reconciliation, transitional justice and social cohesion.

The report concludes that the AU’s relevance in Libya will hinge on practical coordination, including closer alignment with UN-led efforts, the tripartite process and the reconciliation charter, as well as faster follow-up from the AU Peace and Security Council.