Liberia: Kogar Is No Kingmaker Yet - but He Could Cost Boakai Nimba

What the report says

Liberia’s ruling coalition is facing fresh pressure in Nimba County after the Movement for Democratic Reconstruction expelled Senator Samuel G. Kogar, according to an analysis published by The Liberian Investigator and carried by AllAfrica. The article says allies of President Joseph Boakai moved to discipline Kogar after repeated criticism of the government, including over governance and a drug-related investigation, but the decision instead gave him a platform to appear alongside opposition figures and then address supporters in Nimba over the weekend.

Kogar has not publicly declared for any party, and the report says he has portrayed his attendance at an opposition roundtable as part of broader national dialogue. Party leaders, however, argued that his conduct was inconsistent with the ruling alliance, where the MDR says it cooperates with Boakai’s Unity Party government. The expulsion has also triggered a legal dispute, with Kogar alleging due-process violations.

The analysis argues that the immediate political question is less whether Kogar can “own” Nimba’s vote than whether he can weaken the governing coalition’s hold on the county. Boakai and Vice President Jeremiah Kpan Koung won Nimba decisively in the 2023 runoff, and the piece says even a reduced margin there could matter nationally. It also notes that Kogar has won and lost Nimba races under different alliances, suggesting his influence depends heavily on which local blocs back him. For now, the article frames him as a possible spoiler rather than a clear kingmaker.