Lebanese sceptical Israeli polls will bring change, end occupation of south

What the report says

Lebanese residents and analysts quoted by Al Jazeera say they do not expect Israel’s October 27 election to produce a significant shift in policy toward Lebanon, even if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is replaced. The article is based in Beirut and reflects broad scepticism that a new Israeli leadership would end the occupation of southern Lebanon or alter the approach taken during the war that escalated after October 2023.

The report says Israel still occupies large parts of southern Lebanon despite a June framework agreement, brokered with US involvement, that aimed to secure a phased withdrawal. It also says Israeli forces have continued demolishing homes and infrastructure in several villages, contributing to the displacement of more than one million people. The fighting between Israel and Hezbollah has continued at different levels since the Gaza war began, with major escalations in September 2024 and again in March 2026, according to the article.

Al Jazeera highlights comments from Lebanese interviewees who argue that Israeli politics treats Lebanon as a strategic asset rather than a crisis to resolve. The piece notes that challenger Gadi Eisenkot, a former Israeli army chief, is seen by some Israelis as an alternative to Netanyahu, but in Lebanon he is viewed as part of the same security mindset because of his military background and his role in earlier campaigns in the south.

The article places this in the wider context of deep Lebanese distrust of Israel and a divided public debate over whether diplomacy or armed resistance is the better response. It suggests that, for many in Lebanon, the more immediate external factor may be US politics, which they see as influencing how far Israel feels able to go.