Israeli elections: What are the possible outcomes?

What the report says

Israel is set to hold a national election on October 27, with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s hold on power at stake, according to Al Jazeera. The vote will fill all 120 seats in the Knesset and comes after the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attacks, the ensuing war on Gaza, and broader regional conflict. Al Jazeera said recent polling shows Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc in a tight race with a Jewish-led opposition alliance.

Because Israel’s proportional system usually forces coalition bargaining, the outcome may depend on post-election negotiations rather than a single party victory. Al Jazeera reported that the opposition bloc is projected to edge ahead on seats, while Palestinian-led parties could also influence which side can assemble a governing majority. Among the scenarios outlined are a renewed Netanyahu-led coalition, an opposition government, or a minority arrangement supported from outside the cabinet.

The article also notes that Arab-led parties, especially Ra’am and the Joint List, could play a decisive role if larger blocs fall short. Ra’am has previously joined a governing coalition, though many opposition figures have ruled out relying on it again. Other possibilities include a national unity government, a rotating premiership, or a compromise candidate from one of the main camps.

Al Jazeera said another election is also possible if no bloc can secure enough support. It added that such deadlock has been a recurring feature of Israeli politics in recent years, making the result important not only for leadership but also for policy on war, security, and relations with Palestinians.