Iraq faces sovereignty test as US-led military coalition exit nears

What the report says

Iraq is approaching the end of the US-led international military coalition’s mission, with Iraqi authorities saying the withdrawal will be completed by September 30, 2026. Al Jazeera reported that the move follows a 2024 agreement between Baghdad and Washington and would mark a shift to a new phase of relations, while also removing US air defense systems stationed in Erbil in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region.

The development comes as Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government faces pressure to consolidate control over weapons held by nonstate armed groups. According to Al Jazeera, the prime minister has warned such groups they must disarm or face terrorism charges, adding a domestic security challenge to the foreign troop exit. Analysts quoted by the outlet said the withdrawal may be partly symbolic because the US presence has already been reduced in several Iraqi facilities, but they also noted unresolved questions about how Baghdad will manage security on its own.

Al Jazeera said the end of the coalition mission does not necessarily mean a full US disengagement. A former US diplomat cited in the report said Washington is likely to remain involved in counterterrorism, intelligence and embassy-related security, while also emphasizing economic ties.

The article also highlighted regional risks, including concern that Iraq could struggle to defend its airspace if missile and drone threats continue after the Patriot systems leave. The transition is being watched closely because it intersects with Iraq’s broader effort to assert sovereignty, reduce foreign military dependence and prevent deeper instability.