Iraq begins high-stakes security balancing act as US troops withdraw

What the report says

Iraq is marking a new national holiday, “Sovereignty Days,” as the last US troops leave the country after more than two decades of involvement and a coalition mission launched against ISIL in 2015. Al Jazeera reports that the withdrawal involves only a few hundred remaining US personnel, many of them in advisory roles, and follows a phased drawdown that began in 2020. The move is being presented in Baghdad as a symbol of restored state authority.

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has linked the exit to a broader plan to strengthen government control, including efforts to bring all weapons under state command and reduce the influence of armed groups by June 2027. He told the UN General Assembly that Iraq wants to shift its ties with the United States from military cooperation toward economic and development partnerships. But analysts cited by Al Jazeera said the withdrawal also creates a more uncertain security environment, especially because some Iran-aligned militias remain heavily armed and may resist disarmament.

The article says the government is trying to manage several risks at once: possible militia attacks, continued US pressure if Iraqi-based groups target American interests, and the chance of greater Iranian influence. Experts also pointed to lingering threats from ISIL sleeper cells, regional instability after the war in Syria, and the lack of a fully staffed Iraqi security leadership. Even so, Iraqi forces are described as more capable than in past years, suggesting the country may be able to absorb the immediate operational impact of the US departure while its long-term security arrangements are tested.